简介：AbstractBackground:Accurate prediction of ischemic stroke is required for deciding anticoagulation use in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Even though only 6% to 8% of AF patients die from stroke, about 90% are indicated for anticoagulants according to the current AF management guidelines. Therefore, we aimed to develop an accurate and easy-to-use new risk model for 1-year thromboembolic events (TEs) in Chinese AF patients.Methods:From the prospective China Atrial Fibrillation Registry cohort study, we identified 6601 AF patients who were not treated with anticoagulation or ablation at baseline. We selected the most important variables by the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and developed a simplified risk model for predicting 1-year TEs. The novel risk score was internally validated using bootstrapping with 1000 replicates and compared with the CHA2DS2-VA score (excluding female sex from the CHA2DS2-VASc score).Results:Up to the follow-up of 1 year, 163 TEs (ischemic stroke or systemic embolism) occurred. Using the XGBoost algorithm, we selected the three most important variables (congestive heart failure or left ventricular dysfunction, age, and prior stroke, abbreviated as CAS model) to predict 1-year TE risk. We trained a multivariate Cox regression model and assigned point scores proportional to model coefficients. The CAS scheme classified 30.8% (2033/6601) of the patients as low risk for TE (CAS score = 0), with a corresponding 1-year TE risk of 0.81% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.41%-1.19%). In our cohort, the C-statistic of CAS model was 0.69 (95% CI: 0.65-0.73), higher than that of CHA2DS2-VA score (0.66, 95% CI: 0.62-0.70, Z = 2.01, P = 0.045). The overall net reclassification improvement from CHA2DS2-VA categories (low = 0/high ≥1) to CAS categories (low = 0/high ≥1) was 12.2% (95% CI: 8.7%-15.7%).Conclusion:In Chinese AF patients, a novel and simple CAS risk model better predicted 1-year TEs than the widely-used CHA2DS2- VA risk score and identified a large proportion of patients with low risk of TEs, which could potentially improve anticoagulation decision-making.Trial Registration:www.chictr.org.cn (Unique identifier No. ChiCTR-OCH-13003729).

简介：无

简介：无

简介：AbstractBackground:Post hoc analysis of the landmark atrial fibrillation follow-up investigation of rhythm management trial revealed that amiodarone was associated with higher risks of mortality, intensive care unit admission, and non-cardiovascular death. We aim to evaluate the association between amiodarone use and patient survival under updated medical mode and level using data from the China Atrial Fibrillation (China-AF) Registry study.Methods:Clinical data of 8161 non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients who were antiarrhythmic drug (AAD)-naive before enrollment into the China-AF Registry, recruited between August 2011 and February 2017, were collected. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the association between amiodarone use and the outcome. We also calculated the rate of sinus rhythm maintenance at the penultimate follow-up.Results:Compared with 6167 patients of non-AAD group, 689 patients of the amiodarone group were younger (mean age 65.6 vs. 68.6 years), more frequently completed high school education, had fewer comorbidities such as chronic heart failure, prior bleeding, and stroke, and were more likely to be treated in tertiary hospitals while less hospitalization. The proportion of persistent AF was much lower among users of amiodarone, who were also less likely to be taking oral anticoagulants. The patients in the amiodarone group had a statistically insignificant lower incidence of all-cause mortality (2.44 vs. 3.91 per 100 person-years) over a mean follow-up duration of 300.6 ± 77.5 days. After adjusting for potential confounders, amiodarone use was not significantly associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.42-1.49). Sub-group analysis revealed the consistent results. The rate of sinus rhythm maintenance at the penultimate follow-up in the amiodarone group was significantly higher than in the non-AAD group.Conclusions:Our study indicated that amiodarone use was not significantly associated with a lower risk of 1-year all-cause mortality compared with a non-AAD strategy in "real-world" patients with NVAF.

简介：无

简介：AbstractBackground:Interleukin-18 (IL18) gene polymorphisms are related to many inflammatory and autoimmune diseases. However, a correlation analysis between IL18-607C/A and -137G/C gene polymorphisms and Takayasu arteritis (TA) is lacking.Methods:This study enrolled 200 patients with TA as the case group and 334 region-, age-, and sex-matched healthy subjects as the control group. We genotyped alleles and genotypes at positions -607 and -137 of the IL18 gene and analyzed the distribution frequencies. Mann-Whitney U test, t test, Chi-squared test and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium were performed.Results:After adjusting for risk factors, the adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals at position -607C/A were 0.533, 0.391 to 0.880 (P = 0.010); 0.266, 0.586 to 1.002 (P = 0.051); and 0.122, 0.552 to 1.420 (P = 0.613) under the dominant, additive, and recessive models, respectively. For the -137G/C polymorphism, the adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were 1.571, 1.068 to 2.311 (P = 0.022); 1.467, 1.086 to 1.980 (P = 0.012); and 1.815, 0.901 to 3.656 (P = 0.095) under the dominant, additive, and recessive models, respectively. Moreover, regardless of the model used, we found no statistical difference in distribution frequency between the active and quiescent states of TA for the -607C/A (P = 0.355, 0.631, and 0.705, respectively) and -137G/C polymorphisms (P = 0.205, 0.385, and 0.208, respectively).Conclusions:The IL18-607C/A gene polymorphism may decrease the risk of TA, and thus is a protective factor, whereas -137G/C may increase the risk of TA, and thus is a risk factor. However, neither polymorphism was related to activity (active vs. quiescent) of TA.