摘要
Thenumberoftropicalcyclone(TC)genesisovertheSouthChinaSeaandtheNorthwestPacificOceanin2009issignificantlylessthantheaverage(27.4).However,thenumberoflandfallTCovermainlandChinaanditsassociatedrainfallismorethantheaverage.Thispaperfocusesontheperformanceofnumericalweatherprediction(NWP)oflandfallTCprecipitationoverChinain2009.TheChinaMeteorologicalAdministration(CMA)andJapanMeteorologicalAgency(JMA)modelsarecompared.Althoughtheschemesofphysicalprocesses,thedataassimilationsystemandthedynamicframeareentirelydifferentforthetwomodels,theresultsofforecastverificationaresimilartoeachotherforTCrainfallandtrackexceptforTCGoni.Inthispaper,adaywithdailyrainfallamountgreaterthan50mmwasselectedasastormraindaywhentherewasaTCaffectingthemainland.Thereare32stormraindaysrelatedtothelandingoftyphoonsandtropicaldepressions.TherainfallforecastverificationmethodsofNationalMeteorologicalCentre(NMC)ofCMAareselectedtoverifythemodels’rainfallforecast.ObservationalprecipitationanalysesrelatedtoTCsin2009indicateaU-shapespatialdistributioninChina.Itisfoundthattherainbeltforecastedbythetwomodelswithin60hoursshowsgoodagreementwithobservations,bothinthelocationandthemaximumrainfallcenter.Beyond3days,theforecastedrainfallbeltshiftsnorthwardonaverage,andtherainfallamountofthemodelforecastsbecomesunder-predicted.TherainfallintensityofCMAmodelforecastismorereasonablethanthatofJMAmodel.Forheavyrain,theJMAmodelmademoremissingforecasts.TheTCrainfallisverifiedinGuangdong,Guangxi,FujianandHainanwhererainfallamountrelatedtoTCsisrelativelylargerthaninotherregions.TheresultsindicatethatthemodelforecastforGuangdongandGuangxiismoreskillfulthanthatforHainan.TherainfallforecastforHainanremainsdifficultforthemodelsbecauseofinsufficientobse
出版日期
2012年04月14日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
